Seminars & Events
SEMINAR: Prof. dr. Yuliya Kosyakova – International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa)
Abstract: Migration movements are not only shaped by immigration but also by significant return and onward migration flows. Despite their importance, data on these dynamics remain sparse. The newly launched International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) addresses this gap through a large-scale, multi-cohort longitudinal online survey, with around 50,000 foreign-born individuals aged 18 to 65 surveyed in the first wave (Dec 2024–Apr 2025). Drawing on register-based sampling, IMPa enables representative insights into migration intentions and trajectories. This talk presents initial findings on emigration intentions among immigrants in Germany. While 57 percent report plans to stay permanently, 26 percent have recently considered leaving, and 3 percent have concrete plans—split between return and onward migration. Emigration intentions are shaped by personal, institutional, and structural factors: well-integrated, higher-educated, and economically successful migrants are more likely to consider leaving, particularly from knowledge-intensive sectors. Discrimination and lack of societal belonging increase emigration risks, whereas social ties and job satisfaction reduce them. IMPa offers critical insights for migration policy: promoting long-term retention requires not only attracting talent but also removing structural barriers, fostering social inclusion, and improving institutional responsiveness. In the second part of the talk, I will shortly present an IMPa-based academic study that exploits the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, as a natural experiment. The study estimates the causal impact of sudden homeland political change on Syrian refugees’ settlement and return intentions in Germany. Using IMPa data collected just days before and after the regime’s fall, we find that Syrians interviewed afterward were more likely to express temporary intentions, uncertainty, and emigration considerations. However, there was no shift in short-term emigration plans, suggesting these responses reflect forward-looking expectations. Legal status and limited social or emotional integration in Germany further amplify this effect.
Bio: Yuliya Kosyakova is Professor of Migration Research at the Otto-Friedrich-University Bamberg and Head of the Research Department Migration and International Labour Studies in the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the Research Institute of the Federal Employment Agency, Nuremberg, Germany. An extended bio can be found here: About me – Yuliya Kosyakova
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