Seminar: Andreas Ette and Karelis Olivo Rumpf – Navigating Displacement: Insights into Ukrainian Refugees in Germany and Their Return Intentions

Title: Navigating Displacement: Insights into Ukrainian Refugees in Germany and Their Return Intentions

Abstract:

Dr. Andreas Ette will present the Project Ukrainian Refugees in Germany, a collaborative effort involving IAB-BiB, FReDA, BAMF, and SOEP. This project has been collecting panel data since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, with a focus on two key cohorts: Ukrainian refugees who fled due to the war and other Ukrainians residing in Germany (included since wave 5). Children have also been included in the sample starting from wave 4, providing a comprehensive view of the Ukrainian population in Germany affected by the conflict. The presentation will detail the project’s design and methodology, emphasizing the use of a probability-based sampling approach. (15 minutes)

Subsequently, Karelis will discuss her first dissertation paper, which examines how conditions in origin and receiving countries influence refugees’ return intentions. Using a vignette experiment from the third wave of the panel study, she explored the effects of six systematically manipulated country conditions in Ukraine (safety, employment opportunities, social network) and Germany (employment, living situation, residence status). Mixed effects analyses revealed, as expected, that improved conditions in Ukraine and adverse conditions in Germany significantly increased refugees’ intentions to return. Overall, conditions in Ukraine exerted a stronger influence than those in Germany, with safety emerging as the strongest driver. The study further highlights the role of (socio-) psychological factors, such as refugees’ locus of control, sense of belonging, and discrimination experiences, in shaping these decisions. (30 minutes)

Bio: 

Dr. Andreas Ette is a senior researcher and the head of the research group ‘International Migration’ at the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) in Wiesbaden, Germany, where he has been contributing to migration and population studies since 2004. He holds a Master’s degree in Political Science and Geography from the University of Münster, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and the University of Bristol, and earned his doctorate from Bielefeld University with a dissertation on the Europeanisation of refugee and migration policies in Germany.

Karelis Olivo Rumpf is a junior researcher at the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) in Wiesbaden, Germany. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Psychology from the University of Groningen and a Master’s degree in Interdisciplinary Social Sciences: Migration, Ethnic Relations, and Multiculturalism (MERM) from Utrecht University. Karelis is currently enrolled at Utrecht University as an external PhD candidate, where her dissertation focuses on Unraveling the Trajectories of Ukrainian Refugees’ Secondary Migration Intentions in Germany.